How Super Tuesday REALLY translates into the General Election

In order for people to really understand the significance of last night, you must take the total of the Democrat who won and compare that against the Republican won. Then you need to look at the states where the Democratic winner beats the Republican winner but the Democratic loser does not.THAT will give you the best indicator in the GE on who is the best democratic candidate.
 Under this logic we see that in IL,CA, NY, NJ, both Hillary AND Obama beat the Republican contender, but we knew that already.

Let's see who is a better candidate for the General election  and a true 50-state strategy....

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/dates/#20080205

Barack beats  Huckabee in ALABAMA
Obama crushes Huck in Georgia.
Obama  beats Romney in Colorado.

Clinton beats Huck in Arkansas.

For the remaining states, Hillary and Obama are called 'Dems'.
Dems beat Romney in MN.
Dems beat McCain in MO
Dems beat McCain  in OK
Dems beat Huck in TN
Dems destroy McCain in Connecticut.
Dems win in DE
Dems win in MA.  

Dems lose ALaska
Dems lose AZ
Dems lose UT.

When looking at the Dems in the head to head, Hillary only brings one state to the table that Obama cannot deliver, and that is Arkansas.

Obama, however, may be the key to opening up the South again to the Democratic party (This time on more liberal terms) because he can beat Republicans in SC (I looked at the Jan. 19, numbers and he holds up) ,GA, AL and most likely MS, where Hillary cannot. Especially if Huckabee is NOT the candidate. Additionally, Obama shows traction in Colorado which may be the beginning of the Democrats moving into the Southwest. If Romney is not the nominee, then UT is in play as well, as Republicans may not go for McCain in the numbers that they went for Mitt.

Comments?



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Re: How Super (none / 0)

This is very, very misleading.  Democrats almost always outpoll Republicans in competitive national primaries.  The reason is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the country.  


by Toddwell on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:21:19 PM EST

Re: How Super (none / 0)

Ok, good point. But wouldn't a democrat who would vote for a Republican in the GE just stay home during the primaries?  You're assuming that registered Dems vote in the primaries and then jump ship in the fall.....

The numbers this year of voters are very high on the dems and very , very low on the repubs...
Maybe they are dissastisfied ?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Super Tuesday REALLY translates into the (none / 0)

After LA, WA and VI, do you still hold your viewpoint?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 11:42:25 AM EST


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